Thursday, October 22, 2009

Brian: as for me, I love speculation....Part 2

Now for the 9-man playoff picture, and where things get real interesting is in 9AA, where our own Region 4 is loaded, to say the least. Top-ranked Lyman should hold down the overall #1 seed in the entire class, with unbeaten Herreid/Selby a strong #2 seed in the region. Right now, Philip is the 4 seed, but once they beat Kadoka and Lemmon loses to Harding Co. tonight, Philip should move back up into the #3, with Lemmon falling back to #4 and going to Lyman in the first round (Philip goes to Herreid). However, two 5-3 teams could still be in line for at-large bids in other regions out of Region 4. I see Eureka/Bowdle percentage points ahead of White River for the 5- and 6-seeds in Region 4, but it looks to me like that will be enough for both to make the playoffs. Look for E/B to possibly be a 3-seed in Region 1 and go to Hamlin in the first round, while White River could actually be a 2-seed in Region 2 and go to Chester for a first round game (since at-large teams cannot host a first round game). Obviously a lot can still happen tonight, but again, these are just my own observations and speculations.

9A will see some at-large movement as well, as Region 2 is loaded much like 9AA Region 4. Region 4 in 9A, though, with some of our area teams looks to me like it will stay intact, with Sully Buttes, the 2-seed likely hosting Wall in the first round, and the top seed, Harding Co., will host Newell. Now, Highmore-Harrold could probably make the playoffs, but they would first have to beat Sunshine Bible tonight, and hope Newell loses to Edgemont (which is asking a lot). Even if that happens, then the Pirates probably would get bumped out of the region by an at-large team from Region 2, so it's not looking too good for H-H, unfortunately. Look for Arlington and Colman-Egan to venture out of Region 2 to fill the Regions 1 & 3 brackets in the first round.

Class 9B is pretty eastern-heavy, so our area regions, 3 & 4, could be shaken up a bit. Gettysburg is a solid top-seed in Region 3, with Jones Co. #2, and Sunshine Bible at #3. Kimball pulls in at a distant #4, but may need an upset over Mt. Vernon tonight to make the playoffs. Region 4 is not strong, but Faith, Dupree, and New Underwood should hold down the top 3 spots, with Timber Lake actually coming in at #4, and by golly, the Panthers could actually be safe in their own region. If so, look for Timber Lake to play at Faith Tuesday night, while New Underwood goes to Dupree. There will be at-large movement in 9B, though, probably with Warner, the 5-seed in Region 1, moving into Region 3 to take Kimball's spot and giving them a first-round date at Gettysburg, while Sunshine Bible goes to Jones Co. If Kimball should win tonight, Warner would instead replace Timber Lake as the 4-seed in Region 4. Meanwhile Faulkton, with a strong season, should be the 3-seed in Region 1, but behind two unbeaten teams, Grant-Deuel and Hitchcock-Tulare. I see Faulkton going to Hitchcock-Tulare, last year's State runner-up to Avon, and my odds-on favorite to win it all this year, in the first round.

Let me say again, this is all based on my own observations and predictions and in no way should be construed as what will definitely happen. For official first-round matchups, check the SDHSAA website Friday morning, but since everyone else will be doing that, you might want to expect some lag on that website. Have fun tonight and best of luck to all of those still in the hunt!

2 comments:

  1. WOW you have certainly done your homework Mr. Oakland

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  2. Now I know why the State servers are always down:P - bah-dum-shhh (that's a rimshot)

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